Schedule batteries in four Texas load zones on real-time price forecasts

To schedule a battery for the next day, an operator must forecast the real-time price at the battery location. ERCOT clears a separate price at each load zone, so each location needs its own forecast.

At LZ_WEST, prices average USD 17/MWh from 09:00 to 15:00 and USD 62/MWh during the evening peak. Each load zone records 111 to 219 hours above USD 200/MWh, with peaks near USD 3,000/MWh.

To compare forecasts on equal terms, the backtest schedules one 100 MW / 400 MWh battery per load zone on each forecast. The battery has 85% round-trip efficiency, one cycle per day, and a degradation cost of USD 10/MWh.

The schedule is fixed at 09:00 Central on the day before delivery and settles at the local real-time price. The comparison includes a naive schedule that repeats the latest complete day and a price-only model.

eomer adds Site Agent, which forecasts the output of the 100 largest solar parks and the 100 largest wind farms in ERCOT.

eomer captures 60% to 70% of perfect-foresight value across the four load zones. At LZ_WEST, revenue exceeds the naive schedule by 94%. Site Agent adds USD 324k to 441k per battery-year relative to eomer alone.

Over a six-day horizon, eomer records 11.8% lower mean absolute error than the most accurate price-only rival model. A pilot must evaluate the battery node, where congestion and losses can change settlement prices.